Crystal Ball 11.1.2 Essentials

This course enables you to perform spreadsheet risk analysis using Crystal Ball Standard Edition. On day one, you learn the basics of Monte Carlo simulation, tornado analysis, and steps to develop Crystal Ball models. A strong emphasis is placed on gaining insight from simulation results, and understanding the best ways to present findings to peers, management, or clients. On day two, you develop advanced Crystal Ball models, expedite the model-building process, and apply the analytical tools of Crystal Ball Professional Edition. Advanced topics, including optimization and time-series forecasting, advanced assumptions, forecast options, and precision controls, are also covered. The emphasis in the second half of this course is on learning to make optimal decisions by using the combined power of Crystal Ball and OptQuest.
Audience

• End Users
• Business Analysts

Course Topics Modeling and Simulation Overview

• Oracle's Enterprise Performance Management System
• Model Basics
• Simulation Basics
• About Monte Carlo Simulations
• About Crystal Ball
• Model Development Process

Getting Started with Crystal Ball

• Setting Crystal Ball Start Preferences
• About the Welcome Dialog Box
• Basic Crystal Ball Terminology
• Crystal Ball Ribbon
• Additional Resources for Crystal Ball

Examining Probability Distributions

• About Probability Distributions
• Basic Distribution Statistics
• Viewing Distribution Types in the Distribution Gallery
• Properties of Crystal Ball Distributions
• Commonly Used Crystal Ball Distributions

Defining Assumptions

• About Assumptions
• Defining Data-Based Assumptions Through Distribution Fittings
• Defining Data-Based Assumptions with Custom Distributions
• Defining Expert-Based Assumptions
• Referencing Cells for Parameter Values
• Generated Names for Assumption Cells
• Best Practices for Defining Assumptions

Defining Forecasts, Running Simulations, and Analyzing Results

• Defining Forecasts
• Running Simulations
• Analyzing Forecast Charts
• Viewing Other Charts with Forecast Data
• Saving and Loading Forecast Results
• Editing Crystal Ball Data

Correlating Assumptions

• Importance of Correlating Assumptions
• Rank Correlation Method
• Crystal Ball Options for Correlating Assumptions
• Defining Correlations by Modifying Assumption Definitions
• Adjusting Correlation Coefficients During Simulations
• Best Practices for Correlating Assumptions

Creating Reports

• About Crystal Ball Reports
• Generating Reports
• Extracting Data to Excel

Determining Assumptions with Tornado and Spider Charts

• Considering Assumptions
• About Tornado and Spider Charts
• Tornado Charts Versus Sensitivity Charts
• Creating Tornado and Spider Charts
• Examining Tornado Charts
• Examining Spider Charts

Working with Multiple Assumptions

• Batch Fitting Probability Distributions
• Correlating Multiple Assumptions with Correlation Matrices

Setting Advanced Options for Assumptions

• Building Distributions with Alternate Parameters
• Truncating Assumption Distributions
• Creating Distribution Functions
• Publishing and Subscribing to Distributions
• Customizing the Distribution Gallery

Setting Advanced Options for Forecasts

• Automatically Extracting Forecast Statistics
• Adding Marker Lines to Forecast Charts
• Fitting Distributions to Forecast Charts
• Filtering Forecast Results

Working with Simulation Controls

• Setting Precision Control Preferences
• Setting Sampling Preferences
• Setting Run Mode Preferences
• Selecting Options for Simulation Statistics

Optimizing Decisions with OptQuest

• About Optimization
• About OptQuest
• Optimizing Decision Variables
• Analyzing OptQuest Results
• OptQuest Performance Best Practices
• Performing Efficient Frontier Analysis

Forecasting with Predictor

• About Crystal Ball Predictor
• Creating Time Series Forecasts
• Working with Predictor Results
• Performing Linear Regressions
• Predictor Integration with Planning and Essbase

Course Objectives

• Analyze data with Crystal Ball tools
• Set advanced options for assumptions and forecasts
• Manipulate simulation controls
• Optimize decisions with OptQuest and analyze solutions
• Perform time series forecasting with Predictor
• Describe modeling and simulations
• Start Crystal Ball and access resources
• Explain Crystal Ball probability distributions
• Define assumptions
• Correlate assumptions
• Analyze and present simulation results