Risk Analysis Using Crystal Ball - Self-Study Course

Risk Analysis Using Crystal Ball will teach you the basics of Monte Carlo simulation with Crystal Ball, how to gain insights from simulation results, and the best ways to present your findings. This course was created in partnership with Dr. John M. Charnes, former professor at the University of Kansas School of Business. Starting with an overview of spreadsheet simulation, the course answers the question of why risk analysis is vital to the decision-making process, and how to use Crystal Ball to obtain and communicate your simulation results. The lesson units include software tips and application ideas, as well as periodic tests and exercises to help solidify the concepts. The course also contains four exercise models that help you to apply risk analysis to such areas as cost estimation, portfolio allocation, design analysis, and cash flow analysis.

You will need Crystal Ball 7 or later to run this course . The course has been developed using version 7 and the functions available in this version have been included.

Learn to:

• Use Crystal Ball Assumptions, Decision Variables, and Forecasts
• Understand basic probability and statistics concepts
• Fit distributions to historical data, Correlate assumptions
• Perform tornado and sensitivity analysis
• Apply statistical controls to the simulation
• Use a decision table, Interpret and present results

Audience

• Business Analysts
• End Users

Course Topics Welcome

• Welcome
• What is Crystal Ball
• Who is Using Crystal Ball
• Oracle Company Background
• Course Objectives
• How to Use This Course
• Course System Requirements
• Crystal Ball System Requirements

Getting Started

• Getting Started
• Learning Objectives
• CB in Action
• Setting up CB and this Course
• How to Open the Example Models
• Run and Reset Icons
• Exercise 2.1
• Solution to Exercise 2.1

Overview of Simulation

• Overview of Simulation
• Deterministic Models
• Learning Objectives
• Traditional Approaches for Handling Uncertainty
• Sensitivity Charts Icon
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Run Preferences Icon
• Simulation Strengths and Weaknesses

Understanding CB Forecasts

• Understanding CB Forecasts
• Learning Objectives
• CB Toolbar Quiz
• Forecast Window
• Statistics View
• Summary

Introduction to CB Assumptions

• Introduction to CB Assumptions
• Learning Objectives
• Define Assumption Icon
• Crystal Ball Distribution Gallery
• Binomial Distribution
• Summary

Simulation Modeling Process

• Simulation Modeling Process
• Learning Objectives
• Identify Problem
• Build/Revise Model
• Add/Revise Assumptions
• Single Step Icon
• Analyze Forecasts
• Sensitivity Analysis

Basic Distributions

• Basic Distributions
• Learning Objectives
• Distribution Gallery
• Relative Probability
• Using the Custom Load Data Button
• Preferences
• Entering Numeric Values and Absolute Cell References
• Parameters

Additional CB Distributions

• Additional CB Distributions
• Learning Objectives
• Distribution Gallery
• Negative Binomial
• Rayleigh
• Max Extreme Value
• Min Extreme Value
• Summary

Fitting Distributions Data

• Fitting Distributions Data
• Learning Objectives
• Random Processes
• First-Order Autocorrelation
• CB Predictor
• Using the Fit Button
• Skipped Distributions
• Comparison Chart

Correlation Between Assumptions

• Correlation Between Assumptions
• Learning Objectives
• Correlation Coefficient
• Enter Ranges to Calculate Correlation
• Calculated Correlation
• Correlated Assumptions
• Correlation Matrix Tool

Controlling the Simulation

• Controlling the Simulation
• Learning Objectives
• Run Preferences Dialog
• Specifying Precision
• Latin Hypercube vs. Monte Carlo Sampling
• Speed Tab
• Options Tab
• Statistics Tab

Sensitivity and Tornado Analysis

• Sensitivity and Tornado Analysis
• Learning Objectives
• Sensitivity and Tornado Charts
• Sensitivity and Uncertainty
• Understanding the Sensitivity Chart
• Sensitivity Chart Views
• Sensitivity as Contribution to Variance
• Specify Input Variables

Decision Table Tool

• Decision Table Tool
• Decision Variables and the Decision Table Tool
• Using the Decision Table Tool
• Select One or Two Decisions
• Decision Table Tool Output Worksheet
• Decision Table Trend Chart
• Decision Table Overlay Chart
• Decision Table Forecast Charts

Presentation of Results

• Presentation of Results
• Learning Objectives
• Overlay Chart Icon
• Outline Charts
• Choose Trend Charts Forecasts
• Time-Series Plot
• Creating a Report
• Restoring a Crystal Ball Simulation

Course Objectives

• Design simulation models of realistic situations
• Select appropriate probability distributions as inputs
• Use Crystal Ball to make better decisions
• Apply basic statistical concepts to simulation outputs
• Communicate CB results effectively