Investment and Outcome Estimation: Essentials (EN) – Portfolio Decision-Making (Self-Paced)

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In many organisations, investment decisions in product development and portfolio management are based on single-point estimates. These estimates suggest a level of certainty that does not reflect reality, especially in complex environments where uncertainty, variability and risk play a significant role. As a result, decisions are often made on incomplete or misleading information.

A more effective approach is to work with ranges, probability distributions and scenario-based forecasting. By incorporating uncertainty into estimation, organisations can better understand potential outcomes and make more informed decisions about investments, priorities and expected value. These techniques are particularly relevant for organisations working with SAFe, product operating models or Strategic Portfolio Management approaches.

This short, self-paced e-learning allows you to explore these techniques at your own pace. In this Investment and Outcome Estimation: Essentials training, you learn how to apply these techniques in practice, with a focus on both SAFe Lean Portfolio Management (LPM) and broader Strategic Portfolio Management practices. You explore how estimation supports decision-making at product, portfolio and investment level, and how to visualise uncertainty using techniques such as Monte Carlo simulations.

You recognise this

Investment decisions are based on single-point estimates that turn out to be inaccurate
It is difficult to predict costs, benefits and outcomes in complex environments
Portfolio prioritisation lacks insight into uncertainty and risk
Decisions are made without a clear view of possible scenarios and outcomes
You want to improve decision-making using data, ranges and probability

What you learn

Why single-point estimates often lead to misleading plans
How to estimate costs and benefits using ranges and probability distributions
How Monte Carlo simulations help visualise possible outcomes
How to apply estimation techniques in SAFe Lean Portfolio Management (LPM)
How to support Strategic Portfolio Management with better forecasting

What this enables you to do

Make better-informed investment decisions under uncertainty
Incorporate ranges and probability into estimation and forecasting
Improve portfolio prioritisation and value-based decision-making
Visualise possible outcomes and risks using Monte Carlo simulations
Support both Lean Portfolio Management and Strategic Portfolio Management with data-driven insights

Why this training stands out

Connected Movement works with organisations that operate in complex environments where investment decisions, prioritisation and value realisation are critical. Our trainers are practitioners who actively apply Lean Portfolio Management, Strategic Portfolio Management and data-driven decision-making in real transformations.

This means you learn not only how estimation techniques work in theory, but also how to apply them in practice, taking into account uncertainty, stakeholder dynamics and real-world constraints.

The result is a training that is practical, grounded and directly applicable in your own organisation.